Where Does the Housing Recovery Stand?

It will come as no surprise to most people that we’re in the middle innings of the housing recovery in the U. S.:

The housing recovery is still very much in its middle stages. Nationally, home values remain 11.3 percent below their 2007 peak. Looking ahead, U.S. home values are expected to rise another 4.2 percent through the second quarter of 2015, according to the Zillow Home Value Forecast. It will take 2.7 years for national home values to re-achieve their pre-recession levels, assuming a steady rate of appreciation at the forecasted level.

In other words, national home values won’t get back to their prior peaks until at least the first quarter of 2017, almost a decade after the beginning of the housing recession. And full recovery could take even longer, as the pace of home value appreciation is expected to slow in coming months and years.

Locally, in 50 of the nation’s 100 largest metro markets, it will take three years or more for home values to reach prior peaks. Notable large metros where full recovery in home values will take longer than a decade include Minneapolis (14.5 years), Kansas City (12.5 years) and Chicago (11.7 years).

You can count the Piedmont Triad as one of the markets that will likely take longer to fully recover. Our two real estate MSAs – Greensboro/High Point and Winston-Salem – continue to lag the rest of the state and there’s still a significant number of mortgages underwater here. Until demand and prices rise enough to bring home values up it will be hard for those homes to sell unless the buyers have cash, which essentially knocks out any first-time home buyers and that keeps them in the rental market which obviously benefits the apartment industry.