Nationwide Apartment Supply Wave Starting to Impact Fundamentals

From an item published by CoStar Group:

New apartment completions and construction starts continue to trend upward, and the new supply of units is beginning to show up in rising vacancy rates in a number of high-growth U.S. markets…

Vacancy rates in the 54 largest markets tracked by CoStar Group remain at a 10-year low. However, the trend has clearly begun to reverse course. The national vacancy rate has risen roughly 30 basis points over the last three quarters to about 5.5% as supply has overtaken demand, and CoStar is forecasting another 50-basis-point rise in vacancies through the second half of 2014.

Translation – it isn’t happening in secondary or tertiary markets like Greensboro-High Point or Winston-Salem. It’s also restricted to high-end properties:

And while new construction for multifamily housing has picked up in recent months, analysts have also noted that demand for rental housing continues to show strength. As a result, the vacancy uptick has been restricted to Four- and Five-Star properties in markets such as Boston, Austin, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C. Vacancies in Three Star properties haven’t yet seen much movement.

“While the impact of new product will certainly trickle down to the Class B space, it hasn’t happened yet,” Yuen said.