What We Learned at PTAA’s 2017 Industry Forecast Breakfast

PTAA’s 2017 Industry Forecast Breakfast, held November 28 at Revolution Mill in Greensboro, featured a panel of three speakers: Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist at Wells Fargo; Brian Ford, Managing Partner at Capstone Apartment Partners; Colin Wolfe, President of Real Catalyst Group. Vitner provided a regional and national economic update and forecast; Ford addressed the Triad apartment market from a transactional standpoint; Wolfe reviewed the PTAA Supply and Demand Dashboard that he developed in 2017.

Some key takeaways included:

Vitner (National and Regional)

  • Greensboro apartment activity has slowed in 2017 after the highest amount of absorption on record to close 2016. As a result of slower supply growth, rents have increased each quarter this year.
  • North Carolina continues to see solid economic gains across most major metro areas.
  • Pace of job growth in the Triad trails that of the state.

Ford (Piedmont Triad Apartment Transaction Outlook)

  • 52% of Triad Multi-Family Owners are based outside of NC.
  • Since 2016, 78% of buyers in the Triad are new to the area.
  • Number of transactions this year in the Triad is 31 YTD. In all of 2016 there was 54.
  • Triad had almost as many transactions in 2016 (54) as the Triangle (58) did.
  • Cap Rates in the Triad are on average 0.5%+ higher compared to Charlotte and Raleigh MSAs, thus providing for higher returns for investors.

Wolfe (Triad Supply and Demand Dashboard)

  • Completions and Demand in the Triad have been largely balanced over the last four years.
  • Completions as a percentage of overall apartment stock in the Triad has been about the same as the national average over the last four years (1.5% to 2.6%) while Raleigh has ranged from 3.4% to 5% and Charlotte has been in the 4.2%-5.1% range.

Following their presentations, the panelists took questions from the audience for 30 minutes, and the conversation was lively and informative. One fun takeaway from that discussion: Vitner is of the opinion that Charlotte and Atlanta are frontrunners for Amazon’s second HQ.

For more information about the session please contact Jon Lowder.

Post-Election Outlook for Apartment Industry is Mixed

Greg Brown, the National Apartment Association’s VP of Government Affairs, shares his thoughts on what the results of this year’s election means for the apartment industry and it’s well worth the read. Here’s a taste:

For our part, the outlook remains mixed for the apartment industry. Regulatory reform and independent moves by the President-elect to pull back on regulations issued by the Obama team will likely address several areas of concern such as Waters of the United States, the overtime rule and IRS rules on valuation of family-owned businesses. Bigger-picture issues such as the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, some areas of tax law and immigration reform have the potential to cut both ways for owners and operators of apartment homes. Thus, it is critically important that everyone get involved in NAA’s Advocacy365 program and commit to carrying the message of the apartment industry to their representatives in Congress.

Read the whole thing here.

You can also hear an interview with Greg on the Not a Complex Podcast here.