How Will Tariffs Affect Multifamily Development?

In a post on the BMO Harris Bank site, Managing Director and Head of US Commercial Real Estate Kim Liautaud looks at how tariffs could impact multifamily development:

In the multifamily market, project underwriting has tightened across the board because capital providers are concerned that the sector is late in the cycle, according to Chris McKee, head of development at CRG, the real estate development arm of Clayco. McKee explains that while trended rents used to attract equity providers, there’s now a reluctance to underwrite projects unless they’re at flat rents. Tariffs have only exacerbated that effect.

“We’re seeing contractors start to plan for increased costs,” McKee says. “Steel and aluminum companies know the tariff increases are coming, and they’re passing the costs along to general contractors. With flat rents and construction costs on the rise, spreads have been squeezed and multifamily projects became more difficult to underwrite. Tariffs have only added to that, and that trend will likely continue for the foreseeable future.”

McKee notes that trended rents still drive multifamily developments in certain markets where availability is tight, such as Seattle, Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania and Inland Empire in Southern California. Less constricted markets, however, require more caution. “You may get squeezed a little bit by those cost increases because you may not have the rent increases that you would get in some of the tighter submarkets,” McKee says…

When it comes to managing multifamily projects, McKee stresses focusing on fundamentals and relationships. “Look for the right opportunity in the right location,” he says. “If you have a long-standing relationship with an equity or debt provider, you can make a case for rent increases specific to a high-growth micro-market, such as Tampa or Fort Worth. It’s an advantage to have pre-existing relationships with equity lenders who trust and believe in you. So when you go to show them something, they know you’ll deliver.”